Scenario Planning for Development

CEDAR's Sustainability Framework has long talked about the importance of planning for various scenarios by taking the long view in project planning, management, and evaluation activities, reiterated again in a recent paper by Eric Sarriot et al., A causal loop analysis of the sustainability of integrated community case management in Rwanda which also studied scenarios.

Source: http://neomer.us/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/page_scenarioplanning.png

As Wilson Center's New Security Beat writes in its article Scenario Planning for Development: It's About Time, "scenario planning systematically looks at existing and emerging trends and their plausible - though sometimes unlikely - combinations in order to reduce risk. It's an exercise that does not produce single point predictions, but examines a range of possible situations to help prepare for the unexpected."

It's interesting, and heartening, to see USAID changing its approach to development over the last few years by incorporating longer term goals, "adaptive programming" to better respond to external influences such as natural disasters, disease outbreaks, or shifts in governance structures, and increasing focus on "exit pathways". New Security Beat writes of these adaptive approaches that are increasingly embraced, in line with and in response to the rise in uncertainty, preparedness/response shortfalls, and growing complexity. This indeed seems a direction to impact development work for years to come.

Read more about scenario planning and its increasing use by USAID here.

Social accountability - review of existing literature and learning

Social accountability is an essential element to improving health outcomes and facilitating health sector reform. The following links provide two important summaries of some literature on the topic. 

The Role of Social Accountability in Improving Health Outcomes: Overview and Analysis of Selected International NGO Experiences to Advance the Field

CORE Group

Source: http://www.coregroup.org/storage/documents/
Resources/Tools/Social_Accountability_Final_online.pdf

 This review discusses three social accountability models used in various sectors at community, district, and national levels, to increase accountability and improve health outcomes. The approaches reviewed, analyzed, and described are: (1) Citizen Voice and Action, implemented by World Vision; (2) Partnership Defined Quality, implemented by Save the Children; (3) and the Community Score Card, implemented by CARE.

Voice and Accountability in the Health Sector
Health & Education Advice & Resource Team (HEART)

This resource by HEART is a nice and concise review of key peer publications of voice and accountability in the health sector, assessing specific initiatives in the health sector, using Bangladesh as a country example, and providing available models for increasing social accountability.